In an article in the Nature journal Communications Earth & Environment, Dr. Matthias Prange of MARUM – Center for Marine Environmental Sciences at the University of Bremen, and his colleagues discuss the possible ecological, political, and economic consequences, as well as viable solutions.
While global sea levels are rising due to the climate crisis and threatening near-coastal infrastructures, higher temperatures in other areas are having exactly the opposite effect: The water levels there are falling and also causing massive problems. Although the consequences are equally serious, however, declining water levels are receiving less attention according to Matthias Prange, Thomas Wilke of the Justus Liebig University in Gießen, and Frank P. Wesselingh of the University of Utrecht and the Naturalis Biodiversity Center Leiden (the Netherlands).
The Consequences for the Regions Currently Remain Unnoticed
“The Caspian Sea can be viewed as representative of many other lakes around the world. Many people are not even aware that an inland lake is dramatically shrinking due to climate change, as our models indicate,” says Matthias Prange. The report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) also failed to mention lakes, and disregarded the social, political, and economic consequences of global warming on the affected regions. “This has to change. We need more studies and a better understanding of the consequences of global warming in this region.” The goal must be to raise awareness of the consequences of climate change for inland seas and lakes so that appropriate strategies can be developed, including approaches for other large lakes and regions facing similar challenges.
Because of its size – it is the largest lake in the world – and because of its relatively high salinity of about one per cent, which is about one-third of the salt concentration in the oceans, the Caspian has been named a ‘Sea’. Its largest inflow is the Volga River and it has no natural connection to the ocean. The water level is determined by the proportional influences of inflow, precipitation and evaporation. Global warming is causing increased evaporation, which results in a declining water level.
The Water Level Could Fall by 9 to 18 Meters During this Century
The Caspian Sea is an important regional water reservoir and, despite its salt content, a biological and commercial center. It is bounded by Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Iran, Azerbaijan and Russia. Depending on the degree of global warming in the future, the water level could fall by 9 to 18 meters during this century. “This would affect not only the biodiversity, various species, and habitats that would disappear. The economies of all the bordering countries would be impacted, including harbors, fisheries and fish farming.” For this reason, the authors argue that in the future the Caspian Sea should be used as an example in scientific research to assess the vulnerability of certain regions to falling water levels. Because no nation can solve the resulting conflicts alone, they propose a global task force to develop and coordinate strategies. The article suggests that
“international climate funds” could offer a possibility for financing projects and adaptation measures if changes in the lake level are attributed to climate change.
Further infromation:
Original Publication:
Matthias Prange, Thomas Wilke, Frank P. Wesselingh: The other side of sea level change. Communications Earth & Environment 2020. DOI: 10.1038/s43247-020-00075-6
Participating Institutions:
MARUM – Center for Marine Environmental Sciences, University of Bremen (Germany)
Department of Animal Ecology & Systematics, Justus Liebig University, Gießen (Germany)
Naturalis Biodiversity Center, Leiden (The Netherlands)
Department Earth Sciences, Utrecht University (The Netherlands)
Contact:
Dr. Matthias Prange
Geosystem Modelling
MARUM – Center for Marine Environmental Sciences at the University of Bremen
Phone: +49 421 21865430
Email: mprangeprotect me ?!marumprotect me ?!.de
Ulrike Prange
Communication and Media
MARUM – Center for Marine Environmental Sciences at the University of Bremen
Phone: +49 421 218 65540
Email: medienprotect me ?!marumprotect me ?!.de
